Ethereum going to $28,000 AFTER Blackrock ETF Approval? | Expert Explains


As we get word that the world's biggest asset manager that is black rock filed to list an ETF backed by spot Ethereum on the NASDAQ the largest asset manager in the world is now backing both Bitcoin and Ethereum a black rock Ethereum ETF is confirmed they just submitted a few weeks ago a 19 b-4 filing with the NASDAQ and first just looking at Bitcoin with the approval of a black rock ETF the Bitcoin price could hit up to $141 ,000 this is backed up from a new research report from coin shares us Bitcoin ETF launch and the price impact and if after looking through the data Black Rock ETF makes Bitcoin fly what impact will Black Rock have on Ethereum and as you talk about the spot Bitcoin ETF other countries that have launched it didn't see a massive rally why will this time be different well the US is of course the largest pool of capital and of course ETFs are only really established in the US you know we have seen this a long time you know in Asia how Asia tried to establish ETFs but people don't really use them and I think this is because the investor base is very different for the US market than anywhere else and the US is really dominated by a lot of Institutions and those institutions are using ETFs really in the asset allocation of course we have the registered investment advisor community and estimates vary from you know they manage five trillion to even more but if they move like one of those 1% of those 5 trillion that's like 50 billion into into Bitcoin right and I think that could have like a big impact and this research report by coin shares does back up the research done by Galaxy digital where they predicted a 74% bitcoin price increase in the first year after an ETF launch again they based that on the addressable Market the gold ETFs how much money realistically would flow into Bitcoin and while Galaxy surmises that there are $14.4 trillion in addressable Assets in the United States one could assume that perhaps 10% of that invest in a spot Bitcoin ETF with an average allocation of 1% which would equate to 14.4 billion of inflows in the first year of course this would be the bull case if nobody invests in a Bitcoin spot ETF then expect nothing if  just 2% of addressable assets invest expect something again this is speculating that we'll see 10% of AUM and there does seem to be a COR relation between fund flows and bitcoin price meaning there does seem to be a relationship between inflows as a percentage of leading to change in price in fact let's just look at the last few months well I'm looking at uh inflows in Bitcoin and this chart goes back to the beginning of the year and we are on the ninth straight week of  inflows into Bitcoin approaching about $300 million this is the highest week of the year um and just looking we can see a lot of activity over the last five weeks why whatever happened five weeks ago we got a huge breakout in price and let's go to the Bitcoin chart and you can see we are now firmly in the bottom area of all this price history that we had in 2021 lots of things sorted out in there uh suffice to say it's going to take a lot to get through there um is it going to happen slowly quickly depends on the Catalyst again the takeaway in all this is the trend does seem to exist there is a relationship between exchange traded product their inflows and then price going up you know to put it in in numbers there's around 1220 billion US in Precious Metals ETFs in the US so that means in gold and in silver and if you just move you know 10 20% of those shift them over into into Bitcoin you know you have certainly sort of something around in the range of like $25 billions of inflow and just before we look at Ethereum understanding this trend using this trend line it can help us predict what inflows would have on price so if we take the aforementioned $4.4 billion of inflows the model suggests it could push the price to $141,000 per Bitcoin of course no model is perfect the problem with the estimate of inflows is that it is very difficult to ascertain exactly how much money will flow into the Black Rock fund the entire Sales force of the largest asset manager in the world will now be selling this product you're going to have invest go sales Force black rock Sales force Kathy Woods Sales force Fidelity Sales force all out selling Bitcoin but this is the breakdown bitcoin daily will always give you all the information so you can make the best decision for you this is the fund flows model for Bitcoin if zero money goes into the Bitcoin spot ETFs then the price prediction would be about where we are today Galaxy digital the 74% bitcoin price increase in the first year was based off of around 10% of the addressable assets under management if all of them if 10% put 1% of their portfolio into Bitcoin the price would increase to around $58,000 60% $173,000 Bitcoin and if everybody puts 1% of their portfolio into Bitcoin that will lead to a $265,000 BTC and now what could this mean for Ethereum because like we said Black Rock does have an Ethereum ETF application confirmed black croc in their lifetime total have submitted 576 ETFs and every single time except once they've gotten approved now of course Ethereum and Bitcoin are totally different assets with totally different use cases one's digital gold it's aiming to be a store of value while Ethereum is like digital oil meaning you need it to be able to use it just like a car needs gasoline to be able to run Ethereum is that gas that makes the system work now of course the tokenomics are also different Bitcoin has a finite Supply a capped supply of only 21 million ever and not all are on the market yet Bitcoin right now is disinflationary meaning the current inflation rate per year from the miners is around 1.74% this will be cut in half after the 2024 Bitcoin having but Ethereum has an infinite Supply there is no capped Supply meaning for the majority of Ethereum's life the supply was inflationary yet something changed in the middle of 2022 we get an upgrade some called the burn meaning because of the tokenomics change every single time a transaction happened on Ethereum anywhere a little bit of eth would be burned just in the last 30 days alone we've seen over 27,000 Ethereum gone from existence because of how much use on the network that directly correlates leading to many Ethereum days actually being deflationary now this happened in the depths of the bare Market when there was little to no new interest in the space we haven't seen how this will take effect in a bull market and then something else happened to Ethereum a short time later known as the merge where instead of Ethereum having miners which secure the network yes but they also dump Ethereum onto the ecosystem minor cell eth went through the merge which turned them into proof of stake meaning there are no more miners meaning nobody left to dump the earned coins on the market but instead to secure the network validators hold you stake that's that's even more locked up Ethereum so the new tokenomics will be the supply shock the Black Rock Ethereum ETF will be the demand shock and then understanding that whether we're speaking about Bitcoin or Ethereum per cycle we do see diminishing returns meaning every year this asset class matures we're not going to pump as far as fast that green line right there is last cycle that purple line which we're not even that far in yet that's the current cycle for Bitcoin for Ethereum not quite as old but that orange line is eth's current cycle and now understanding all of that this is the current eth versus USD chart while from bottom to top last cycle Ethereum had Ethereum increased by over 4,3 58% if we take that same percentage and put it from the bottom thus far maybe eth as a new bottom time will tell but in the most bullish scenario if Ethereum increases by the exact same percent maybe this will be one of the last great crypto bull runs like myself and coin Bureau speculated in our interview but if that happens the Ethereum price gets to $42,000 that's crazy I do not see Ethereum getting that far I mean that would be that that's irresponsible maybe for me to even suggest but again I'm just doing the math again looking at the diminishing returns we see Ethereum's again we don't have that much data but it's really sort of diminishing returns going down by half as much for the last two cycles so if that were to happen not 4,300 but maybe Ethereum goes up by 2,600 that's a $28,000 Ethereum and by the way many experts are sheepish with their eth predictions this cycle because all of them got burned last cycle they were too bullish and eth didn't perform like people thought it would so now they're underplaying it I think the most the highest we're sort of seeing this cycle is maybe eth gets to $10,000 which would be a huge win.