IT'S HERE: $69K Bitcoin Just MONTHS AWAY?! (Bitcoin Price Prediction Early 2024)


Bitcoin has nearly doubled in the last 90 days hey guys what's going on Sajid and in today's Article we're going to be talking about how Bitcoin has rallied more in the last 90 days than it did in the entirety of the 2016 and 17 bull market and we're going to be asking one very important question since Bitcoin is rallying so quickly when will it actually hit all-time high everything from our historical analysis to the upcoming pause to the FED interest rates to the Bitcoin having clock continuing to click down these are all the reasons why I think that an all-time high run on bitcoin could be sooner than we expected so without much further Ado let's go ahead and Dive Right on into it today's Article is brought to you by our very own crypto currency technical analysis blog  this is the One-Stop shop for all cryptocurrency Traders and investors to learn technical analysis so that you can begin profiting Bitcoin has been experiencing an explosive rally here in the back half of 2023 and that has had a lot to do with the announcement of a black rock ETF back in June of this year ever since that announcement came and especially ever since coin Telegraph announced that the Black Rock ETF was approved which was fake news Bitcoin has been going through a massive bull market and even in just the last couple of days that rally has picked up bringing Bitcoin all the way from $41,500 to its current local high at $45,000 on the back of news that black rock has received $100,000 in seed funding for their spot Bitcoin ETF on October 27th back when Bitcoin was in the midst of recovering from its previous massive nearly $10,000 rally an unknown and mysterious seed investor agreed to purchase $100,000 worth of shares of the Bitcoin Black Rock ETF and on October 27th 2023 they since took delivery of those 4,000 shares at a share price of $25 the fact that the SEC is allowing anybody to take delivery of shares of the Bitcoin Black Rock ETF is a great sign and need I remind you that this was nearly 45 days ago and things have only progressed since then but speaking of back then today we're going to start off with some historical analysis you see the backbone of  historical analysis looking what the price has done in the past finding and Discerning trends that we can then use to predict future performance and today.we're going to look at 2019 and 2020 through the lens of historical analysis to gain some perspective of when we will be rallying back to all time high this bull market because those are really about the only two time periods where we have seen anything akin to the kind of rally that we are witnessing right now to put this recent rally into perspective we have rallied as far in the last 90 days as we did in the entirety of the 20167 bull market and we're not even getting started yet the most recent examples of analogous markets would be the rally from $10,000 all the way up to $70,000 back in 2021 that led into the bull market and to our first all-time high at 65k before that our next analogous historical price action that looks anything like what we've just experienced was this rally in the first half of 2019 where we rallied $10,000 in 150 days and there are multiple similarities and differences between these two markets this first rally here in 2019 rallied over $10,000 in Bitcoin with stop at $13,500 at the time that was a rally back to the 786 retracement level on Fibonacci which was right around where we rallied to at 13,800 this 2019 rally was initially kicked off by a reversal in the histogram on the mad which ended up turning into a cross just a few months later and of course a bottoming out on RSI which ended up turning into a cross above the 14 interval moving average just a few months later as well these were early signs that Bitcoin was going through a massive reversal on its monthly chart from bare Market into bull market we are seeing many of the ex-EXA same signs right here denoted in red you can see the reversal of the histogram on mad followed by a bullish cross exactly the same way that we saw in 2019 at the same time to not it in blue here you can see where the RSI bottomed out and then just a couple of months later where RSI broke above the 14 interval moving average even coming down and back testing it as support just a few months ago before this massive rally began in short our market right now is looking very much similar to the market that we saw in 2019 that topped out at 138 did not Rally to all-time high but would end up leading us to all-time high about a year and a half later there is one key difference that we're going to talk about here in just a moment though and that would be the having this rally and all of its subsequent signals happened a year before the having to noted here in White in May of 2020 our having is in April just 130 days away so it is important to note that all of these Trends are happening significantly closer to the having indicating that we might not stop out at the 786 level which currently sits at $50,000 but we may actually continue going all the way back to all-time high the fact that we are going through these same rallies with these same signals coming from the same indicators mad RSI volume and more that I could go into we could be here for hours talking about the other indicators lead me to the conclusion that what we're experiencing right now is a rally very similar to this beginning rally of 2019 but instead of seeing a year of sideways price action before we actually break all-time High we might only see a very short correction which would lead us to all-time high much sooner in the 2019 example we had the pandemic begin and then at the very beginning of 2020 Bitcoin would drop 60% putting a massive damper on the entire rally to start with and we also did not have a black rock ET have to consider which by the way we are likely going to be seeing an approval for if we're going to see an approval in quarter 1 of this coming year based on my technical analysis my thesis is that we're going through a market very similar to what we saw here where Bitcoin rallied 300% in the span of just four months but instead of going through a year of sideways price action the way we did in the back half of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 we may very well just kind of jump forward 6 months towards this all-time high run territory and Beyond much sooner maybe quarter one of next year my initial prediction for a return to all-time high on bitcoin was quarter three of this coming year but there are three major reasons besides the technical analysis I just showed you that Bitcoin may be rallying back to all time high many months sooner than that potentially even as soon as January or February of this year I've already told you one of them that would be the Black Rock ETF and that is coming very soon either an approval or a denial probably going to be an approval considering they're already selling shares of it but there are two more reasons why I believe in all time high run may be coming even sooner than quarter three of next year which was our initial prediction and I'm going to explain those now first and foremost the Bitcoin having as I for mentioned the Bitcoin having is only 132 days away and it is expected to happen on April 17th 2024 the Bitcoin having occurs roughly every four years and it results in a having of the block reward for miners now the way that Bitcoin works is via Block Chain it is essentially a long Ledger of different containers of transactions linked together in a chain and to create one of those blocks you have to have a minor mine the block well the minor has to make money for the work that they put in and so they get paid into two different ways number one the fees that you pay on the Bitcoin transactions that go in the block that they mind but also via the block reward the block reward is currently 6.25 Bitcoin per block yes that is a lot but it will be cut in half on April 17th down to 3.125 that means that the inflation rate of Bitcoin will slow down by half making it even more scarce Bitcoin is already more scarce than gold I.E it is increasing in total Supply slower than gold but it's going to be increasing in its total Supply at half the rate in Just 4 months given a supply side shock at the same time we're seeing a demand side shock with the black rock ETF probably coming this is a perfect storm of bullishness because when you see the supply get cut in half and the demand double triple or quadruple naturally the price is going to go parabolic and that's why we're looking at a January to February all time High instead of quarter three because the having's coming up at the very beginning of Q2 and the hype for the having normally takes place right before the having and right post having and of course there's a black rock factor to consider looking on the charts here during the last having which was in May of 2020 we did see a massive run up to the having Bitcoin doubled in less than 60 days and if not for the pandemic having crashed Bitcoin 60% in the span of just a couple of days we probably would have seen Bitcoin go through a very similar rally up to nearly all-time high before the having even kicked in and we may have seen the all-time high run up to 30 40 50 60 several months earlier again if not for the pandemic and so too we may see the exact same thing occurring this bull market as a result of the having last but not least \we also need to talk about the FED rates the reason the FED rates are so important is because the effective federal funds rate is the single number that drives pretty much the entire Market a brief history of the FED is as follows the 12 decentralized federal reserve banks were set up in the very beginning of the last century following a huge number of banking crisis's and they were designed to be a lender of Last Resort essentially Banks work by loaning out the money that you deposit to generate interest and that's where they make their money from but they typically back in the day and even today only hold on to 10 to 20% of your money so if everybody tries to withdraw at the same time they can go bankrupt it's where the word comes from the large number of banking failures led the government to realize we need some kind of fallback so that people are not losing all of their deposits because this is causing a recession every few years and absolutely stifling the growth of the national economy so the FED Banks were created as a lender of Last Resort in the 30s as a result of the depression the centralized Federal Reserve was created over the other 12 fed Banks and they have two major tools at their disposal to manipulate the economy that being their interest rates and that being their balance sheet the balance sheet is a topic for another video that we've covered before but the effect of federal funds rate is important because that is the rate of interest that they charge on the loans that they hand out to those Banks remember the banks come and borrow money from the FED what rate are they charging for that money that they lend out that is the effective federal funds rate over the course of the 21st century the effective federal funds rate has basically been zero essentially especially during the 2010s if you wanted to borrow money from the fed you basically got it for free but there have been a few examples of hiking interest rates from the FED in an attempt to slow down growth in the economy and normalize inflation the first hiking cycle happened in the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis in the last hiking cycle happened in the leadup to the 2019 2020 recession caused by the pandemic as a result of all of the inflation that the FED caused trying to fix the joblessness that was occurring from the pandemic they've hiked interest rates at the fastest rate that they've done in decades and for the last year everybody's been looking at one word Plateau when do the interest rates stop hiking because as we're about to see from the history when they stop hiking generally they start to go down very soon in 2006 when the effective federal funds rate plateaued it only stayed at Plateau for 420 days before slammed straight down to the floor back to zero here in 2019 we were only plateaued for less than a year before they were slammed right back down to the floor at 0% and the reason that's so important is because the United States economy is driven on debt if you're trying to expand your business you're probably borrowing money well every single interest rate in the entire world not just the United States Market but in the entire world is based off of the effective federal funds rate so if the effective federal funds rates at 5% you can basically guarantee that you're never getting less than a 5% interest on any loan that you take out so when that goes down to zero all of your interest rates on all debt that you can take out goes down by at least 5% because the banks are trying to make the difference between the effective federal funds rate and what they're charging because if you go back far enough they're eventually borrowing from the Fed so they have to Arbitrage and make up the difference that's why credit cards are 26.99% please don't get into credit card debt that's why Home Loans are 89% right now because the effective federal funds rate is so high on a home loan the difference between a 3% interest rate and a 9% interest rate could be the difference in thousands of dollars a month in payment so you slow down the economy by hiking the interest rates which means you speed up the economy and you speed up the investment in new expansion of the economy therefore leading to expansion in the stock market and into cryptocurrency when you drop the interest rates well the effective federal funds rate has already been plateaued since July we have not seen another hike yet and if we don't see a rate hike on the next decision which is coming in 7 days then we will basically be able to confirm that a Fed rate pause has now occurred and within the next 12 months we should be seeing the rates drop but you start to build the hype about rates dropping as soon as you realize the plat to comes because to get to a rate drop you first have to stop hiking the rates at the first place and CME Group one of the most powerful Financial organizations on the entire planet give it a 97.7% likelihood that the Fed rate will be paused once again again meaning that we will probably see a Fed rate drop at some point in the next year but that meeting is coming up in 7 Days on December the 13th and when the market realizes wait a minute the FED has actually paused interest rates and they're probably not going up again at all that will be massive fuel for a bullish movement on the stock market and also on bitcoin which contributes to our Bitcoin prediction and that's how all of this comes full circle as I've stated there have been two major thought processes of when Bitcoin is going to hit all time High either quarter three for multiple reasons of next year or quarter one of this year January February March and those are the three reasons why I am actually leaning in the d all-time high run on bitcoin could be coming a lot sooner I do like to remind you that anything can happen the Black Rock ETF could be denied the FED could come out of left field and they could hike the interest rates again throwing out the idea that we're going to see a Fed rate POS throwing out the bullishness with that as well and of course there is the opportunity that look bitcoin's already rallied $220,000 it's going to stop out at 50 which is our 786 level go through a correction for several months and then go to all time high in quarter three that can still happen but right now the fact that Bitcoin rallies straight through 41k up to 45 gives us a lot more indication that the magnetism of all-time high might just suck us right up there immediately so when are we going back to all-time high on bitcoin honestly I'm starting to lean in the direction of January February and March of next year hopefully you see all of the reasons why I'm starting to lean in the direction that an all-time high run coming in the next several months is right around the corner if black rocks ETF does get approved I think you're going straight to all-time high if it gets denied you're probably going to go through a major correction and then rally to all-time high in Q3 as we talked about it's not uncommon for Bitcoin to hit all-time High a couple of months after having which would put that all-time high run in summer to early fall of next year regardless I have an over 90% confidence that we're going to all-time high on bitcoin next year many of your favorite altcoins are going to as well so I want to just kind of let you know right now what you need to do you need to ensure that you are building your dollar cost averaging portfolio right now and the way that I recommend doing that is investing every single Friday whatever you can afford to lose in about the top 20 cryptocurrencies start with a lot of it in Bitcoin a little bit less in Ethereum and then invest in Ada Solana xrp binance Dogecoin sheep chain link polka dot all of those cryptocurrencies top 20 I personally exclude Litecoin and Bitcoin cash because I don't think they're going to be very successful this bull market but pretty much the rest of them stable coins notwithstanding that's what we're doing we're dollar cost averaging into those if you have not already set up that Investment Portfolio I would highly recommend you do that with whatever you can afford to lose every single Friday over on Coinbase and also don't forget that to be successful in the crypto currency markets you've got technical. I hope you will enjoy a lot keep read the next articles.